Tech
Shares Roil Market as Stocks Fall for Second Week
This week marks the second week in a row of declines which is continuing the stretch of volatility brought on by various tech stocks. The S&P 500 has lost 4.8% and the NASDAQ 7.2% over the past two weeks. This is the worst decline for both since March. This decline has been alarming to investors mainly due to the fact that increase in the market over the summer was due to only a handful of tech companies that benefited from the COVID-19 pandemic. Even Tesla took a hit, recording their worst day ever this Tuesday with shares falling 11%. Some are worried that this recent volatility could be the start of a pullback, however currently the NASDAQ is still up 21% for the year. Many investors are assuming continuing volatility in the market due to the fact that the upcoming presidential election results may be unknown for several weeks. Due to this increasing volatility, investors are increasingly turning to safer options like government bonds.
Auto
GM and New Electric Car Company Nikola
At the beginning of this week, General Motors (GM) announced they were partnering with Nikola, an electric truck company that went public in June via a reverse merger . This announcement caused GM shares to rise 8% and Nikola’s to raise a staggering 41%. The deal of the partnership is that GM will produce and manufacture Nikola’s new truck models and in return receive an 11% stake in the company and a seat on the board. THne, Thursday morning Hindenburg Research put out a report on Nikola in which they called Nikola a fraud, essentially claiming the CEO Trevor Milton had falsified reports on the functional capabilities of the trucks and Milton’s leadership. With the publishing of this report, Milton promised a full rebuttal and shares fell 8%. Then Milton tweeted about how he “won’t comment further now other than saying that we have involved SEC.” Shares then fell another 14% and Nikola is facing backlash. Nikola was a SPAC deal and this allegation could cast a cloud over SPAC deals especially considering they have a reputation of being shady. IN response to the allegations GM said, “We are fully confident in the value we will create by working together."
Economy
Looking to the Fed with Last Meeting Prior to the Presidential Election
The Federal Reserve’s final meeting before the upcoming election is supposed to be completed this Wednesday and many are looking for the meeting to establish some of their plans for monetary policy. There is concern the Fed won’t give clarity on things such as bond pricing. Past policies have been major factors behind the market surge of 50% since March 23rd. With the volatile week of the market and the expirations of options and futures in the coming week adding to the volatility, investors are paying close attention to the Fed. A Bank of America strategist noted that a the stock market is hoping for a dovish Fed because “the market needs that now because fiscal policy is going nowhere.” The market is expected to remain choppy and fall slightly further during the month of October, especially with growing uncertainty surrounding the election.
Copper and Treasuries Breaking Apart
Historically the price of copper has been consistent with the 10-year Treasury yield. Copper is very sensitive to economic fluctuations and when the market is doing well, Copper prices are high. Same can be said for the Treasury yield. However in recent months, Copper has been in the top 85% of its price range and the Treasury yield has been closer to the bottom 15%. The reason for this disconnect is seen to be largely due to the fiscal and monetary stimulus due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the Fed actively suppressing interest rates. Due to the increase in stock valuations combined with weak earnings, and the excess liquidity in the system, there could be lower than average long-term return for stocks.
Retail
Peloton is Crushing Estimates
One of the big changes of social restrictions from the COVID-19 pandemic, is the ability to workout in groups. One company really cashed in on this, Peloton, a at home state-of-the-art workout bike. Bike workouts are easy to bring into the home. These bikes start retailing at approximately $1900 for the base model plus the add ons and workout class subscriptions. In the fourth fiscal quarter Peloton’s sales surged 172%. Peloton is predicting sales to continue at this rate well into 2021. This surge in sales has created an issue in the delivery of the bikes especially given the current climate. Earnings per share for this quarter where 27 cents as opposed to the expected 10 cents per share. Revenue was 607.1 million vs the expected 582.5 million expected. Peloton reported subscriptions to their services was up 113% from last year. Ultimately this surge boosted Peloton 24% above what they had predicted for fiscal 2020. Peloton has also just launched their Bike+ and is planning on releasing Tread, their treadmill in early 2021. As of Thursday;s market close, Peloton shares have risen 211% this year.
Sport
The Return of NFL and What it Means for the Economy
The NFL kicked off this past Thursday with Superbowl champions Kansas City Chiefs facing off against the Houston Texans. Football is an economic giant that generates $9 billion each year from partners in rights for broadcasting. Fantasy football leagues and betting also drive up revenue. These companies include Walt Disney, ViacomCBS and even Amazon.com. There was even an uptake in Thursday night football betting with FanDuel reporting they were up 300% from last year. Not only will football returning provide a gauge of the wellbeing of the economy, but will also show either the success or failure of preventing the spread of COVID-19.
Written By: Madeline Purdy
Works Cited
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